Predicting diabetic kidney disease for type 2 diabetes mellitus by machine learning in the real world: a multicenter retrospective study.

Objective: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) has been reported as a main microvascular complication of diabetes mellitus. Although renal biopsy is capable of distinguishing DKD from Non Diabetic kidney disease(NDKD), no gold standard has been validated to assess the development of DKD.This study aimed to build an auxiliary diagnosis model for type 2 Diabetic kidney disease (T2DKD) based on machine learning algorithms. Methods: Clinical data on 3624 individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) was gathered from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019 using a multi-center retrospective database. The data fell into a training set and a validation set at random at a ratio of 8:2. To identify critical clinical variables, the absolute shrinkage and selection operator with the lowest number was employed. Fifteen machine learning models were built to support the diagnosis of T2DKD, and the optimal model was selected in accordance with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy. The model was improved with the use of Bayesian Optimization methods. The Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP) approach was used to illustrate prediction findings. Results: DKD was diagnosed in 1856 (51.2 percent) of the 3624 individuals within the final cohort. As revealed by the SHAP findings, the Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) model achieved the optimal performance 1in the prediction of the risk of T2DKD, with an AUC of 0.86 based on the top 38 characteristics. The SHAP findings suggested that a simplified CatBoost model with an AUC of 0.84 was built in accordance with the top 12 characteristics. The more basic model features consisted of systolic blood pressure (SBP), creatinine (CREA), length of stay (LOS), thrombin time (TT), Age, prothrombin time (PT), platelet large cell ratio (P-LCR), albumin (ALB), glucose (GLU), fibrinogen (FIB-C), red blood cell distribution width-standard deviation (RDW-SD), as well as hemoglobin A1C(HbA1C). Conclusion: A machine learning-based model for the prediction of the risk of developing T2DKD was built, and its effectiveness was verified. The CatBoost model can contribute to the diagnosis of T2DKD. Clinicians could gain more insights into the outcomes if the ML model is made interpretable.

[Screening biomarkers for hypertensive heart disease: Analysis based on data from 7 medical institutions].

Objective: To screen the influencing factors of hypertensive heart disease (HHD), establish the predictive model of HHD, and provide early warning for the occurrence of HHD. Methods: Select the patients diagnosed as hypertensive heart disease or hypertensionfrom January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019, in the medical data science academy of a medical school. Influencing factors were screened through single factor and multi-factor analysis, and R software was used to construct the logistics model, random forest (RF) model and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. Results: Univariate analysis screened 60 difference indicators, and multifactor analysis screened 18 difference indicators (P<0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of Logistics model, RF model and XGBoost model are 0.979, 0.983 and 0.990, respectively. Conclusion: The results of the three HHD prediction models established in this paper are stable, and the XGBoost prediction model has a good diagnostic effect on the occurrence of HHD.